TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,108 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over52c132,461$69,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,442.8243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Under48c90,060$43,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,228.85534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under50c18,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c14,254$7,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,127.572,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c13,792$6,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,606.634,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c12,069$5,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,762.775,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under47c11,585$5,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.7759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under49c6,127$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.41,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c6,059$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.683,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Over51c5,680$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.179440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c5,222$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over53c3,993$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.891,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under49c3,643$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over54c3,248$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.793,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over52c2,251$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.6957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Over53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.7912051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c1,700$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.953,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over51c1,578$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.592,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c1,528$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.452,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over50c1,331$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.383,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c1,002$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Under53c1,001$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.4734855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Under49c975$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7535744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over47c649.44$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.651,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over53c589.45$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6626638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over51c576.92$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9564944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1615450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under46c406$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7662744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over52c353.33$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.922,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under49c289.12$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.672,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c240.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.166,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Under49c211.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.415038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under48c208.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under48c205.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4745146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9628348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Under48c197.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.619435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under45c177.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.651,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb0…4c2dbacked Over51c147$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.03850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under54c125.23$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6717545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under49c124.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.21,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under49c119$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1941052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over51c107.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4262844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Under48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504546.7%21 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4842551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549255.4%51 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over49c99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.491,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked Over51c88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1227059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under51c84.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9525655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Under49c81.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Over50c70.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.196746.3%31 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under47c66.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2350841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…132abacked Under49c61.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0313639.7%54 W · 82 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under51c61.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Under47c59.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2815949.7%79 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eca…9b1bbacked Under53c58.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under44c57.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0639047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c55.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Under50c52.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over50c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over54c47.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9892058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Under48c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7932352.6%170 W · 153 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d7…7c97backed Under49c45.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.294763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over55c41.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8254854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6994…eed0backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204037.5%15 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027462%170 W · 104 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under49c34.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8587744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over47c33.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.772,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over50c27.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6778648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4227…8c10backed Under47c26.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over47c26.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1496956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Under53c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7215253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over51c23.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.621,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfd…641abacked Under51c23.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149c…558ebacked Under49c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.787950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.