NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3e91dd4b9797fa250268045c1debfd9b55531c930ffaea679867fcce445b071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 38,404$21,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,374.47 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 7,858$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Under | 46c | 6,915$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.39 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 3,364$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.43 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 3,002$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 51c | 2,925$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.74 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 2,640$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.3 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,739$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 47c | 1,589$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 1,440$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.23 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 1,129$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Over | 52c | 957.75$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.72 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 939.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.38 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 51c | 753.46$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.62 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 501.15$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 414$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 387.43$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 52c | 386.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.08 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 320.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 54c | 236.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 218.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 198.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 185.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Over | 49c | 146.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Under | 46c | 140.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 46c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 101.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 64.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed Under | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 53c | 43.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 52c | 42.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 36.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 44c | 32.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 45c | 29.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Under | 48c | 29.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 53c | 25.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kings vs. MavericksKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.