TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over55c38,404$21,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,374.4743542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c7,858$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,565.815,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Under46c6,915$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,190.396657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under46c3,364$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c3,002$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under51c2,925$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.7422648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under47c2,640$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over53c1,739$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over54c1,600$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7361,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under47c1,589$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74723052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c1,440$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.232,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under45c1,129$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.153,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over52c957.75$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.721,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47561740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over54c939.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.382,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over51c753.46$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6226638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c501.15$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.263,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c414$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.35,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under45c387.43$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.826,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over52c386.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0815450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under47c320.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.892,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over49c285.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7187453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over54c236.74$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.922055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under46c218.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0268645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9853951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c198.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.371,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over53c185.82$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.982,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Over49c146.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9413045.4%59 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Under46c140.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2919435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under46c114$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4462541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over55c101.02$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.461,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.341,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3765872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under46c64.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.972,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under45c51.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Under47c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.886446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Over53c43.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2530151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Over52c42.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.125038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Over60c41.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.755158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under45c36.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.641,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Under44c32.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2943543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd25c…fe19backed Over49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6117652.3%92 W · 84 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Over49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.395260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under45c29.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2339047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked Under48c29.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over53c25.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8725655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over50c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5796956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Over53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.460267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1062049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010043%43 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.