NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdad9b3ba0ad8b878271a2e5b4a7492f466c8300d91820ac652adf92947060ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 48c | 8,413$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410.98 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 2,437$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 49c | 1,516$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 1,504$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.71 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 1,307$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 1,055$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.15 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 607.35$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 599.84$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.6 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 477$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 44c | 450.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 339.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 339.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.53 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 297.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 47c | 289.16$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 44c | 280$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Under | 55c | 181.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 42c | 167.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 123.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Under | 51c | 115.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…3c00backed Under | 58c | 114.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 52c | 50.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 43c | 39.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Under | 54c | 37.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 37.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Under | 59c | 34.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…f362backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 60c | 33.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kings vs. MavericksKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.