NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ebeb1a2ab41852967e2c7f49050e58b21237265d22aa520957474d3e52920d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 49c | 21,854$10,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,061.66 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Over | 49c | 11,894$5,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,113.75 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 11,876$6,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,087.67 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 53c | 6,563$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.31 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 4,994$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Under | 47c | 4,479$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.19 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 4,202$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.29 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 47c | 2,925$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.25 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 2,870$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 47c | 2,232$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.91 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 46c | 1,495$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 1,436$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.49 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 1,040$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 795.36$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.63 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 677.34$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 630.7$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.85 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 40c | 625$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 622.64$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 575.65$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 479.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 454.96$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 54c | 380.38$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.28 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 308.63$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.06 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 118.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 68c | 106.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…e6e5backed Under | 22c | 97.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 13c | 91.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 54c | 87.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 83.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 83.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 64.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 49c | 63.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 46c | 50.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 49c | 50.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Under | 30c | 39.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Under | 51c | 38.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 33.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 78c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 76c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kings vs. MavericksKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.