NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fd4d2882b51894c815ed5c7fca8d6cd4066286c0a233c84583657dfa5f6e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Kings | 46c | 68,436$31,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,955.33 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Mavericks | 54c | 62,500$33,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,750 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 4,639$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.93 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 54c | 1,700$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 47c | 1,485$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,123$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.33 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Kings | 47c | 1,107$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.95 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Kings | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Mavericks | 53c | 940.93$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.69 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 51c | 870.3$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Mavericks | 52c | 796.57$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.89 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Kings | 46c | 632.48$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.48 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Kings | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Mavericks | 54c | 462.62$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Kings | 46c | 460.87$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.87 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Mavericks | 57c | 352.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Kings | 43c | 316.63$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Kings | 46c | 242.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Mavericks | 56c | 177.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kings | 49c | 143.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 118.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Mavericks | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Kings | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Mavericks | 50c | 100.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 85.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Kings | 46c | 82.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Kings | 47c | 78.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Mavericks | 53c | 75.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Kings | 79c | 66.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b68dbacked Mavericks | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Kings | 49c | 58.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Mavericks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Mavericks | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Mavericks | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kings | 44c | 44.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Kings | 54c | 43.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Mavericks | 48c | 42.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Mavericks | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Mavericks | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Kings | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Kings | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 49c | 28.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…4e52backed Kings | 46c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kings | 44c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…31c9backed Mavericks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 21.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…97a1backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kings vs. MavericksKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.