TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Kings46c68,436$31,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,955.3387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Mavericks54c62,500$33,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,75051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks54c4,639$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.934,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks54c1,700$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9153,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings47c1,485$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.78,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks53c1,123$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.3389050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Kings47c1,107$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.9517344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Kings50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Mavericks53c940.93$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.6945850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks51c870.3$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.83,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Mavericks52c796.57$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.8950653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Kings46c632.48$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.4849246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Kings50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Mavericks54c462.62$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4126638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Kings46c460.87$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8748546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Mavericks57c352.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Kings43c316.63$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4835444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Kings46c242.98$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2129347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Mavericks56c177.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Kings49c143.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.152,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks53c118.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.422,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Mavericks54c110$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.437850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks52c108$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.162,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Kings47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3854549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Mavericks50c100.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.191,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks51c85.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.154,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Kings46c82.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Kings47c78.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5135843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Mavericks53c75.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0329149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed Kings79c66.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Mavericks53c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4538252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b68dbacked Mavericks56c62.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Kings49c58.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.952152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Mavericks52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020241.1%83 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea33…ae06backed Mavericks54c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2411759.8%70 W · 47 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Mavericks56c51.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Kings50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2535551.3%182 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kings44c44.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.182,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Kings54c43.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7245653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Mavericks48c42.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1819435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Mavericks52c40.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129348.5%142 W · 151 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Mavericks54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f53…d57bbacked Kings47c37.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.116735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Kings49c30.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.825038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kings49c28.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.823,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f61…4e52backed Kings46c28.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.582147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Kings44c27.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e29…31c9backed Mavericks56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Mavericks50c21.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.826058.3%35 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6edf…97a1backed Mavericks50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.