NFL · resolved market
NFL Kickoff Parlay: Taylor Swift Special
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4ae398e34fa1e6601f7b16c4f23b37d0b8b9e259162643c5dacd28afbaff8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,080$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 69c | 1,930$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 74c | 1,582$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.4 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 68c | 1,380$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…5767backed Yes | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 66c | 1,131$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.41 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…454dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 34c | 909.05$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…fe4fbacked Yes | 43c | 823.06$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 12c | 820$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 56c | 655.43$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.32 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed No | 70c | 535.43$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed No | 68c | 499.28$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…fdc6backed Yes | 32c | 392.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…d7adbacked Yes | 29c | 339.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed No | 61c | 317.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 291.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…ad8fbacked Yes | 33c | 282.15$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 68c | 276.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…cb28backed Yes | 38c | 275.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 32c | 250.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 31c | 249.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 73c | 240$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 64c | 177.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…3a50backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 30c | 137.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 30c | 134.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 30c | 122.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 68c | 108.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…2c03backed No | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…e22fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…4b5fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 68c | 88.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…3c73backed Yes | 29c | 78.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc34…ff67backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…ab83backed Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…c130backed Yes | 29c | 46.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked No | 69c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2526backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.