Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5ee9a74b42d855a37f8e49adbf0ac3ef8926e106830b12c39716f7896438f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 31c | 1,471$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.41 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,342$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.36 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 679.57$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 64c | 597.44$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.66 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 594.3$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 567.49$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 563.17$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 455.34$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 405$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 325.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 40c | 296.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 284.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 261.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 38c | 254.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 247.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 41c | 220.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 154.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 67c | 134.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 131.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 128.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 49c | 128$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 56c | 125.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 105.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 64c | 104.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 95.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…b897backed Yes | 40c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 67c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 40c | 81.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 77.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 36c | 77.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 71.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 67.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 67c | 67.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 67.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 39c | 64.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 63.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 56.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 56.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 54.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 54.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 46c | 52.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 50.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 50.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 59c | 44.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 28c | 41.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 41c | 40.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 40.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 42c | 38.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 38.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 73c | 38.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 36.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 36.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 34.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…0988backed Yes | 41c | 34.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 52c | 31.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…ffa4backed No | 60c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 29.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 28.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 76c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 62c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 26.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…94f3backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 49c | 25.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 44c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 24.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 46c | 22.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 78c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 52c | 21.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.