TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes31c1,471$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.4117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes55c1,342$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.3631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No48c679.57$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.258,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes64c597.44$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.662218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c594.3$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.954,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes28c567.49$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.058215.9%13 W · 69 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No67c563.17$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.551,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c455.34$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.352,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c405$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c325.53$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed No40c296.85$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.533842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c284.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No46c261.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.594,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed Yes38c254.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.284141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes45c247.22$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No41c220.05$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No69c154.03$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.751,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No67c134.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3313545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes41c131.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.761,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c128.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No49c128$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.811,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes56c125.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes42c119.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c118$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes60c115$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.29646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes60c105.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.885,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes64c104.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.165024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c95.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x529d…b897backed Yes40c93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes67c82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.720438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No40c81.55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.751,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c77.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.846,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes36c77.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c71.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No56c67.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.493,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes67c67.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.95541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes35c67.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes39c64.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c63.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.572,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No75c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.528455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c56.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No59c56.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No55c54.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c54.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.524,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No46c52.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.091,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes48c50.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No54c50.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2738860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2955954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.034,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes59c44.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5418862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No28c41.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.342,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No41c40.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2871159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes58c40.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.097835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.864859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No59c39.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.453353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No42c38.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes46c38.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes47c38.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7747…fe40backed No73c38.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.366560%39 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes37c36.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No35c36.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.482,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c34.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe957…0988backed Yes41c34.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-71.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3315555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No52c31.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a8…ffa4backed No60c30.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c8…08d4backed Yes63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.853262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes35c29.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes40c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes38c28.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No35c28.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.712,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes71c28.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No76c28.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7426458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes46c28.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023c…99a0backed Yes62c27.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No44c26.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.732,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7150…94f3backed Yes41c25.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No49c25.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2528649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfb…636dbacked No44c24.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8411225%28 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No46c24.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.432,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae3…8262backed No46c22.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.42466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No52c22.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.756053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c22.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No78c21.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.777876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes52c21.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.282,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes60c20.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.410764.5%69 W · 38 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.