Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb358ca46d9301706b64e165ccc8aff79d8c521663af4c48e5b91f1759285f109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 3,334$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 904.44$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 700.02$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 562.31$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 456.02$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 411$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 350$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 348.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.42 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 31c | 307.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.45 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 287.87$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 285.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 274.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 67c | 265.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 219.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 203.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 201$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 178.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 175.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 70c | 171.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 26c | 168.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 159.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 156.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 155.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 32c | 151$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 141.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 138.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 128.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 42c | 125.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 113.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 33c | 104.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 101.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 95.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 87.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 85.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 84.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 76.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 28c | 72.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 67.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 61c | 65.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 72c | 62.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 71c | 56.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 55.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 53.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 52.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 50.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 49.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 61c | 45.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 68c | 44.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 43.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 68c | 43.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 41.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…cb7cbacked No | 68c | 37.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 36.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 36.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 31c | 36.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 68c | 35.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 35.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed No | 70c | 32.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed Yes | 32c | 32.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 30.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 76c | 28.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 75c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 59c | 25.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…db6bbacked No | 68c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 52c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 22.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 22.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 73c | 21.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 19.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.