TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,608 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Toronto Blue Jays50c9,982$5,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.4614953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Miami Marlins49c8,005$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.746547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Toronto Blue Jays49c7,016$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.3920548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Blue Jays52c3,395$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.281,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Toronto Blue Jays49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0206654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Miami Marlins51c1,796$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.063740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins38c1,727$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.751,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Miami Marlins52c1,718$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89926245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Miami Marlins50c1,594$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.5240846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Miami Marlins48c1,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7255750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Miami Marlins50c1,478$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.7684049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Miami Marlins52c1,382$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.481457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Miami Marlins50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays70c914.35$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.824,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Miami Marlins52c900$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46535245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Miami Marlins39c802.2$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.963246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Miami Marlins44c718.6$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.318530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays61c713.41$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.948,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays57c683.76$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.962,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Miami Marlins50c624.8$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.42839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Miami Marlins51c506$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0613442.5%57 W · 77 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2653,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Miami Marlins49c483.6$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2391338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c2…8f23backed Miami Marlins53c447.4$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Toronto Blue Jays62c404$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.467750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Toronto Blue Jays58c360.04$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9555541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c307$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.167753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Miami Marlins50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins61c244.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Toronto Blue Jays50c242.87$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.481,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Toronto Blue Jays57c237.94$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.655847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Toronto Blue Jays56c232.03$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1849942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Miami Marlins51c216.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.41,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Miami Marlins50c208.8$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.311,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Miami Marlins51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked Miami Marlins38c175.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Toronto Blue Jays48c171.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.384544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Toronto Blue Jays52c166.03$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2142241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Miami Marlins49c163$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6531038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Toronto Blue Jays52c160$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.877050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Miami Marlins50c152.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.381346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Miami Marlins48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728336.1%30 W · 53 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Toronto Blue Jays53c140.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cdb…9d70backed Toronto Blue Jays62c135.27$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Miami Marlins50c121.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8317050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed Miami Marlins49c107.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7240351.4%207 W · 196 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Miami Marlins53c105.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1872247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Miami Marlins51c105$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5517151.5%88 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Miami Marlins49c104.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.141030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Miami Marlins37c104.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.278154.3%44 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Toronto Blue Jays49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0418151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked Miami Marlins50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Miami Marlins50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505046%23 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf08b…9a7dbacked Toronto Blue Jays48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Miami Marlins32c97.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2810945.9%50 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked Miami Marlins32c95.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins29c89.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.684122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Miami Marlins17c86.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513021.5%28 W · 102 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Toronto Blue Jays60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Miami Marlins52c82.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9625648%123 W · 133 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays51c80.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4998149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Miami Marlins50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Miami Marlins39c71.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.723256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Toronto Blue Jays70c70.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8735137%130 W · 221 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Miami Marlins38c70.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.531266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Miami Marlins51c70.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a84…e21abacked Miami Marlins30c67.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e5…ab31backed Miami Marlins25c66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8322…b5fbbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c63.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Miami Marlins52c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1624748.6%120 W · 127 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Miami Marlins50c56.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.235650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed Miami Marlins39c55.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.688350.6%42 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Toronto Blue Jays47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.195354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Miami Marlins45c52.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.582540%10 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Miami Marlins51c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.526342.9%27 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Miami Marlins53c51.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4535240.3%142 W · 210 L-23.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Miami Marlins49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.513752.6%72 W · 65 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Toronto Blue Jays51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+58.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays60c46.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.651,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6833…751abacked Toronto Blue Jays51c39.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Toronto Blue Jays64c39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0614251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Miami Marlins53c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.956746.3%31 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Toronto Blue Jays80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54153.7%22 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1691…9228backed Toronto Blue Jays45c35.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Miami Marlins49c33.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12c…57acbacked Toronto Blue Jays51c33.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Miami Marlins57c33.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0217…253cbacked Toronto Blue Jays50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Miami Marlins34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.143929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb13…b7f8backed Toronto Blue Jays64c27.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Toronto Blue Jays50c25.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e5…485abacked Toronto Blue Jays61c24.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Miami Marlins48c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5278052.2%407 W · 373 L+22.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Toronto Blue Jays63c22.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.278247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bf…9d7cbacked Miami Marlins55c22.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edd…3ae8backed Toronto Blue Jays51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa67…0ed7backed Toronto Blue Jays51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Miami Marlins51c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7123647%111 W · 125 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Miami Marlins49c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109543.2%41 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fee…c478backed Toronto Blue Jays50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.