TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Raccoons (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bushido Wildcatsof Bushido Wildcats, Raccoons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Bushido Wildcats38c11,560$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,207.815,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Raccoons61c10,584$6,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.6675452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Bushido Wildcats43c10,567$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,016.2666551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a8…68a2backed Raccoons63c5,006$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Raccoons55c4,999$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.4611844.9%53 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Raccoons66c3,227$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.195759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Bushido Wildcats38c2,857$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.1359055.3%326 W · 264 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Bushido Wildcats43c2,633$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.548261%50 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Bushido Wildcats34c2,625$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.651,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Raccoons62c1,866$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.8548040%192 W · 288 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…f245backed Raccoons64c1,620$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.922045%9 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Bushido Wildcats37c1,586$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.082,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Raccoons62c1,341$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.412,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Bushido Wildcats37c1,245$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.4438841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff6…1963backed Raccoons57c1,227$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.464560%27 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Bushido Wildcats38c1,173$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.0245854.8%251 W · 207 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Raccoons63c1,128$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9217954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…50f0backed Bushido Wildcats37c1,098$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.911216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Bushido Wildcats36c1,093$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.772,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9491…547dbacked Raccoons68c1,092$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.55425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bushido Wildcats37c1,074$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.961,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Bushido Wildcats33c1,032$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.4356941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked Bushido Wildcats33c979.04$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.79734%33 W · 64 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe453…256ebacked Raccoons64c970.39$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6231741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a9b…7a35backed Bushido Wildcats51c963.57$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.84940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Raccoons52c944.23$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.5435347.9%169 W · 184 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7618…24c6backed Bushido Wildcats34c889.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Bushido Wildcats36c865.61$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.425,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raccoons62c840.33$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5214163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Raccoons62c821.4$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.941,03857.4%596 W · 442 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Raccoons59c799.99$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4712,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Raccoons62c798.38$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Raccoons62c709.12$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.6661054.6%333 W · 277 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raccoons64c705.79$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.992,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Raccoons61c692$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.123256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Raccoons64c679.33$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.827740.8%113 W · 164 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78dd…3235backed Raccoons47c642.11$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0c…5ad0backed Raccoons75c589.4$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8810643.4%46 W · 60 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Bushido Wildcats36c569.7$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.622,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Bushido Wildcats40c544.24$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5440439.6%160 W · 244 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6524…5cf2backed Raccoons70c530.71$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3691323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-59.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Raccoons64c509.15$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.869735.1%34 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Bushido Wildcats36c485$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.447836.8%176 W · 302 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed Bushido Wildcats55c457.9$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.058958.4%52 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Raccoons65c451.49$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4745065.6%295 W · 155 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1c…6383backed Raccoons47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Bushido Wildcats35c405.64$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.346663.6%42 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Bushido Wildcats39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24438052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0e…2ca8backed Bushido Wildcats53c393.92$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Raccoons57c380.18$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.937548%36 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadd…e3d7backed Raccoons62c350$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2173246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Bushido Wildcats35c348.52$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.913,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bushido Wildcats42c346.01$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.297,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raccoons23c335.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.51,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Bushido Wildcats39c321.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.377732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd30b…2acdbacked Raccoons47c319.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.14759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Raccoons64c319$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.169728.9%28 W · 69 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf526…f706backed Bushido Wildcats52c302.46$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Bushido Wildcats35c290$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5816963.3%107 W · 62 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Raccoons56c283.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1593959%23 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…8930backed Raccoons65c279.98$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816237.1%23 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Bushido Wildcats42c278.96$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7351055.9%285 W · 225 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed Bushido Wildcats42c275.57$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7711341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c9…b32cbacked Bushido Wildcats34c264.71$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.713633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bushido Wildcats33c257.02$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5668059.3%403 W · 277 L+64.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Raccoons59c218.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8867645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Bushido Wildcats37c218.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.634941.5%145 W · 204 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed Raccoons63c213.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4116245.7%74 W · 88 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Raccoons70c202.58$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1119353.9%104 W · 89 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80b1…1a8cbacked Raccoons47c200.47$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.221020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9544…7518backed Raccoons65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Raccoons64c195.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0817042.4%72 W · 98 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Raccoons67c192.66$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3660755%334 W · 273 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Raccoons58c180$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.430949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Raccoons64c171.85$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9821652.8%114 W · 102 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf6…b29fbacked Raccoons66c167.36$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.818654.7%47 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Raccoons55c166.66$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7371739.6%284 W · 433 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Bushido Wildcats38c163$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0632949.2%162 W · 167 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…5de9backed Raccoons61c161.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raccoons67c152.73$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.015,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6083…aa55backed Raccoons63c151.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.582128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8213…711cbacked Bushido Wildcats45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825466.7%36 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0607…b344backed Bushido Wildcats36c147.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.123577.1%27 W · 8 L+8.4wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+59.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3df3…1411backed Raccoons47c144.68$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Raccoons42c142.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024047.9%115 W · 125 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed Raccoons62c139.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.55438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Bushido Wildcats36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8939455.3%218 W · 176 L+17.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Raccoons76c128.89$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.035752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Bushido Wildcats47c128.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.61,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Raccoons63c125$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.752556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Bushido Wildcats34c123.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5884658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Bushido Wildcats34c116.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1727048.9%132 W · 138 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Bushido Wildcats39c107$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.35,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bushido Wildcats53c104.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.081,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2064…240dbacked Raccoons63c104$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8961…64cebacked Raccoons62c100.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.424255.8%135 W · 107 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Raccoons66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6685351.7%441 W · 412 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8c…1b70backed Raccoons69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Raccoons62c97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.145442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked Raccoons62c96.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.73551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.