South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed39b3b63161795a001be7ac84aa5c374069a94afa0d4ad5aa5ddbb845d0a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed No | 77c | 16,300$12,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 23c | 10,652$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.01 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 2,178$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.92 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,935$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…a3aabacked No | 78c | 1,273$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.1 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 24c | 1,227$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.44 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,103$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 45c | 1,078$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Yes | 17c | 803.71$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 774.72$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.87 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 767.05$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.47 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 32c | 618.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 560.69$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…3c50backed Yes | 45c | 555.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed No | 55c | 541.47$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.66 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 17c | 512.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 54c | 435.93$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Yes | 7c | 408.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 48c | 391.73$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 13c | 336.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 67c | 313.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…dc4ebacked No | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…b095backed Yes | 24c | 242.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 236.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Yes | 54c | 230$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 23c | 218$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 202.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 76c | 198.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 61c | 163.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 31c | 160.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 24c | 159.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 24c | 157.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 12c | 148$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Yes | 46c | 127.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 74c | 121.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 51c | 119.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 107.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 47c | 101.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 78c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 77c | 85.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…6a20backed Yes | 23c | 85.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 80c | 82.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 71.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 15c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked No | 57c | 68.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…9d48backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked No | 78c | 67.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…fed6backed Yes | 19c | 65.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 23c | 62.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d3…b82ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 46c | 47.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49cc…16e3backed Yes | 24c | 45.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…16dcbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…d7debacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 73c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Yes | 55c | 37.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed No | 63c | 17.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 77c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 73c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-20?this page
- Will Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.