Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1e0118254fce411374ed2535ee14a1f2e77a8d8f002c044e73aad90fb474d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 1c | 7,991$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 33c | 1,351$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.69 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,113$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 13c | 1,065$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 953.64$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.98 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 757.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 52c | 518.15$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 452.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 57c | 386.17$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 288.36$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 43c | 288.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 287.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 41c | 239.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 228.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 213.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 65c | 209.64$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 58c | 206.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 79c | 199.39$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 22c | 195.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 22c | 149.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 145.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 132.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 35c | 125.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 118.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 113.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 44c | 106.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 96.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 14c | 95.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 67c | 92.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 30c | 88.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 35c | 87.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 30c | 86.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 72.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 38c | 71.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 32c | 71.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 71c | 67.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 73c | 66.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed No | 42c | 54.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 37c | 53.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 41.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 41.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…f992backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…ff60backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…7631backed Yes | 65c | 26.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 24.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…4932backed Yes | 62c | 24.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 79c | 23.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 72c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.