Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc9c5c63b1e76be14e6a1a72ec929ee27463afc32f72b222b3f4c678f5f649c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed Yes | 0c | 46,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.65 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,112$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 627.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 608.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 519.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 402.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 345.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 27c | 344.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 36c | 341.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 68c | 326.92$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 10c | 303.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 16c | 282.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 63c | 273.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 11c | 178.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 174.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 158.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 67c | 145.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 16c | 143.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 133.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 129.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 14c | 124.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 21c | 106.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 79c | 100.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 91.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 19c | 89.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 69c | 87.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 22c | 80.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 34c | 77.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 70c | 66.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 39c | 56.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…73f7backed No | 77c | 48.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 75c | 32.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 42c | 27.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 43c | 23.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…13cdbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6914…8f72backed Yes | 79c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.