Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db881ada6e1bad19463f9663a158066a9d72d18d46d6827e52d32ca123e4a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 11c | 1,185$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 670.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 11c | 513.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 40c | 507.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.64 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 48c | 463.64$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.08 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 267$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed No | 70c | 237.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…dcabbacked Yes | 51c | 191.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 47c | 189.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 164.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 35c | 159.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 22c | 151.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…f992backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 38c | 133.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 21c | 132.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0400…2dfabacked Yes | 17c | 123.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 108$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 106.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 71c | 105.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 101.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…ea77backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 92.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 19c | 78.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 77.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 46c | 61.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 56.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 51c | 51.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…975dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 44.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 42.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 39c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb00…1942backed Yes | 65c | 29.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96dd…ff8ebacked No | 61c | 28.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 60c | 27.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c287backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 54c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.