TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes30c2,064$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.3117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c553.67$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.12,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes39c479.44$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c422.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.44,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes40c403.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c396.15$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c339.4$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c271.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c234$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.22,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes33c227.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.661,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No50c205.62$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.645786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0725175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c188.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes28c138.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes27c123.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c120.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes41c105$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3821651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes75c100.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.223951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes48c93.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.462,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No52c93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2727461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c91.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No74c91.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8434151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No39c79.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4954234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes50c73.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5531319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.854,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No53c67.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7119148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No49c66.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.581,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No35c65.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3538454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes31c64.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c63.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.713,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes32c60.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No71c57.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.631,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes56c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes28c54.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.536123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c49.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes28c44.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3372837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No66c42.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.371,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes56c40.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.714963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No73c40.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8424164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes26c40.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.427655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.619965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed No51c38.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2219757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes43c38.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.713838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec87…43f9backed No72c35.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.726764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…aac9backed Yes67c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.453855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.13,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes48c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.515448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No59c28.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c28.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.644,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No67c26.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8617457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes51c26.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No75c26.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7724141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f1…eed4backed Yes75c26.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No70c25.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6528762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No73c25.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.872,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No68c23.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.574057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No72c23.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No64c21.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No53c21.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.982,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.712,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0917324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19af…6e63backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.155168.6%35 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bb…d53fbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.154168.3%28 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4075…cd19backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.155265.4%34 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No70c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No58c18.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.572,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No69c17.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.562,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…b929backed No69c17.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.375666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c17.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.192,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes60c16.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.195,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No70c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1228068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No72c16.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed Yes79c16.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7717759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No65c15.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x749c…6301backed No73c15.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd009…91afbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.63759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.