Champions League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-07-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fe82f20fb7eee30ef964b9c1a211ec14aedcfb199fd3949965dd12db92581ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 57c | 2,358$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.51 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…1986backed Yes | 44c | 2,297$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…994dbacked No | 2c | 1,733$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,699$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 1,310$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.87 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked No | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed No | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed No | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed No | 36c | 576.08$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 26c | 553.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 20c | 532.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 37c | 477.87$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.55 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 80c | 444$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 73c | 432.07$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 38c | 382.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 45c | 272.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 57c | 256$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 57c | 255.26$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 59c | 254$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 59c | 253.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 59c | 253.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed No | 55c | 176.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Yes | 67c | 165.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 59c | 157.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 151.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 56c | 114.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 54c | 95.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 85.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 61c | 79.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…c33dbacked Yes | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 57c | 52.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 61c | 48.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584a…8b8abacked No | 64c | 47.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 63c | 42.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 43c | 35.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…c2a9backed Yes | 44c | 31.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 73c | 30.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Yes | 80c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Yes | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-07-21?this page
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Shamrock Rovers FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2026-07-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.