TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EYEBALLERSof EYEBALLERS, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$540,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$612,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40e…9770backed EYEBALLERS41c21,800$8,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,923.0317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed FaZe1c20,948$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.694940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FaZe59c16,051$9,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,420.211,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked EYEBALLERS28c11,845$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,529.9541040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed EYEBALLERS36c11,768$4,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,477.8920354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked EYEBALLERS44c11,065$4,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,166.2440137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked EYEBALLERS53c9,826$5,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9f…2087backed FaZe2c9,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eeb…cf79backed FaZe2c9,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8f…3ce9backed FaZe3c7,714$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78b…3a8abacked FaZe58c7,648$4,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.121838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FaZe68c5,606$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,792.473,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked EYEBALLERS36c5,058$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.0543951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e5…7d84backed FaZe4c4,915$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked FaZe57c4,912$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.761,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed FaZe65c4,840$3,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.488053.8%43 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FaZe70c4,384$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.9476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed FaZe47c4,057$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.8340048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FaZe64c3,822$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.912,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2422…1939backed FaZe2c3,750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FaZe52c3,633$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.411,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed EYEBALLERS29c3,580$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.311,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FaZe68c2,848$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.144,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e3…de04backed EYEBALLERS23c2,710$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.174250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FaZe69c2,704$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.981,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EYEBALLERS22c2,203$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.4161034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked FaZe50c2,156$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.391,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked FaZe76c2,096$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60046165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked EYEBALLERS30c2,060$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44221655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed EYEBALLERS43c2,000$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.3437557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked FaZe59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18021522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed FaZe79c1,974$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.237065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked FaZe38c1,869$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7108741.4%36 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed FaZe60c1,781$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.814839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ba4…9e2dbacked FaZe7c1,714$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked EYEBALLERS21c1,714$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.337617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed EYEBALLERS29c1,705$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.316743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked EYEBALLERS30c1,696$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.2153545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked FaZe63c1,685$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.728258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FaZe36c1,640$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.812,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FaZe73c1,614$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.641,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed EYEBALLERS52c1,599$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.9712348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe291…748ebacked EYEBALLERS33c1,564$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FaZe56c1,524$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.212,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FaZe66c1,517$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.826,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed FaZe71c1,431$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.0715749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae8…63e6backed FaZe12c1,400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682524%6 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked EYEBALLERS48c1,343$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked EYEBALLERS32c1,339$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.0848948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FaZe54c1,250$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67536453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked FaZe47c1,217$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.152259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed FaZe60c1,200$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72032346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed EYEBALLERS30c1,177$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.9710143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665a…7005backed FaZe1c1,161$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed EYEBALLERS39c1,159$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.27157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FaZe68c1,132$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.512,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…e622backed EYEBALLERS53c1,110$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.374351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed FaZe70c1,100$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77013360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FaZe30c1,022$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked FaZe68c1,016$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.9520944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed FaZe72c1,015$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.6420743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FaZe40c1,004$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.033,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf5…7fadbacked FaZe7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed FaZe70c1,000$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.961060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed FaZe54c999.98$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9943455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked EYEBALLERS46c947.18$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.822,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed FaZe58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005151%26 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6783…401abacked FaZe58c862.05$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.991457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed FaZe57c855.6$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.810150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad3d…a814backed FaZe6c845.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked FaZe33c823.74$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.316033.3%20 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed EYEBALLERS25c817.06$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked FaZe75c800.53$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EYEBALLERS37c792.32$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.3252837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked EYEBALLERS31c782.59$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.6624038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0890…c657backed EYEBALLERS23c755$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.052744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FaZe64c702.43$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.862,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked EYEBALLERS25c700.53$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.48556.5%48 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EYEBALLERS40c670.33$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.272,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed EYEBALLERS31c670$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.37944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed FaZe25c666.64$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7614362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked EYEBALLERS30c658.73$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.2322241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed FaZe63c651.78$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.6227961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed EYEBALLERS29c634.98$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.846041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…1a38backed EYEBALLERS24c631.74$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.935658.9%33 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+54%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed EYEBALLERS33c631$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.7345646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed FaZe73c625.8$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7549646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa981…ab19backed EYEBALLERS2c600$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+172.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked FaZe40c586.63$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.535847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed FaZe66c560$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.91,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed EYEBALLERS40c555$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33350043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked FaZe17c552$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8835242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…fa6dbacked EYEBALLERS37c545.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.026338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b0…cdf7backed EYEBALLERS36c542.42$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.153551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked EYEBALLERS30c533.19$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.2334140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a9d…5521backed FaZe57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked FaZe73c515$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.0335460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed EYEBALLERS32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked FaZe64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32019857.6%114 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…5e3fbacked FaZe57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.