NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7049952b950f958f425b352ffa7e4e95d30a07c94782219eabe52bd8bfba7293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets | 51c | 7,503$3,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.54 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Spurs | 49c | 7,143$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.86 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Spurs | 44c | 2,358$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.48 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Spurs | 56c | 1,900$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.4 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Nets | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 44c | 1,707$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.89 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Nets | 53c | 937.22$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.73 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 49c | 821.67$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 48c | 779.64$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Spurs | 48c | 769.18$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Nets | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Spurs | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nets | 56c | 473.6$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Nets | 53c | 448.85$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Spurs | 43c | 429.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…fd2dbacked Nets | 57c | 429.82$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs | 48c | 428.47$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.15 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Nets | 58c | 374.21$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.04 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Spurs | 44c | 274$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Nets | 48c | 209.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Spurs | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Nets | 50c | 196.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Nets | 53c | 188.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Nets | 55c | 185.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Spurs | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Spurs | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nets | 53c | 111.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Spurs | 44c | 105.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Spurs | 44c | 105.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Spurs | 52c | 96.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Nets | 50c | 92.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets | 48c | 80.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…ff78backed Spurs | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Nets | 53c | 68.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 52c | 68.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Nets | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spurs | 60c | 54.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs | 49c | 53.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nets | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Nets | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Nets | 53c | 45.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Nets | 54c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…7018backed Nets | 53c | 31.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked Nets | 53c | 30.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…5eb1backed Nets | 53c | 30.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Spurs | 47c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…196ebacked Spurs | 59c | 30.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Nets | 53c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 343 | 42.9%147 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nets | 40c | 25.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Nets | 53c | 23.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nets | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Spurs | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…8aa7backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)this page
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Noah Clowney: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. NetsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Nets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.