TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed No43c1,996$863 inWon+$1,132.91,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes57c1,899$1,086 inLost-$1,086.0414356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes52c1,826$945 inLost-$945.231,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9953…270fbacked Yes54c1,040$562 inLost-$561.713250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No48c991.09$472 inWon+$519.2971449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No50c600$300 inWon+$30047354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No46c500$230 inWon+$27090863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dd0…ee95backed No46c391.64$180 inWon+$211.646137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No45c117.28$53 inWon+$64.744,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No49c100$49 inWon+$512,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No47c100$47 inWon+$53.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes52c81.31$43 inLost-$42.5692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes57c72.92$42 inLost-$41.8136954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No50c54.35$27 inWon+$27.3493145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No47c53.43$25 inWon+$28.441,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes57c47$27 inLost-$26.725754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No45c40.13$18 inWon+$22.0883158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked No50c40$20 inWon+$20.0632352.6%170 W · 153 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes52c38.32$20 inLost-$207951.9%41 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked No47c30$14 inWon+$15.923350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.