Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705afdd30f51560d023aa2b2c7dac7b2e2080deb5bdd761e0f03cdaeca4dba8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 476.74$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 283.94$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 253.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 236.49$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 235.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 45c | 217.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 153.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 145.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 142.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 71c | 123.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 101.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 57c | 99.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 51c | 98.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 67c | 92.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 90.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 90.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 48c | 77.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 77.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 77.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 74.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 55c | 68.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 68.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 66.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 44c | 59.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 44c | 56.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked No | 40c | 46.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 42.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 40.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 40.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 72c | 37.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 36.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 33.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 57c | 32.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 54c | 28.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked Yes | 73c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 54c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c5…37a9backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.