Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x707238ef945e5ca4941c71e09fe7a2e2a8671045b5899a97ae529e2d7137e5af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad9…2647backed No | 1c | 894.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 74c | 761.35$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 577.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 575.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 529$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 490.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed Yes | 74c | 460.57$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 360.21$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 356.93$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 32c | 320.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.03 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 317.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 294.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 288.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 19c | 266.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 58c | 263$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 250$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 27c | 235.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 41c | 223.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 16c | 216.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 215.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 205.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 203.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 26c | 199.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 178.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 54c | 163.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 58c | 159.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 9c | 153$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 59c | 149.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 37c | 136.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 76c | 118.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 66c | 112.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 74c | 107.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 107.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 104.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 102.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 100.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 97.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 94.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 26c | 89.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 82.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 25c | 81.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 78.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 77.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 56c | 77.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 49c | 76.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 75.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 29c | 67.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 61c | 64.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 59.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 51.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 49.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 48.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 39c | 44.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 42.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 39.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 38.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 80c | 36.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 35.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 34.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.