Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf907169c4a84c7104b37b3a5003426426c84c6136080f969bee53ca85b3775e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 737.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 3c | 662$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 23c | 627.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 597.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 457.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 27c | 367.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 340.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 317.4$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 9c | 290.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…d206backed Yes | 25c | 248.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 189.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 183.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 177.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 152.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 146.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 31c | 140.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 140.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 140.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 128.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 22c | 126.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 116.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 23c | 113.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 108.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 34c | 104.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 93.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 29c | 92.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 59c | 90.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 18c | 88.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 28c | 85.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 79.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 76.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 66c | 74.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 70.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 68.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 68.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 59c | 67.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 66.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 63.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 63.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 61.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 60.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 32c | 60.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 57.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 52.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 52.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 28c | 49.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 41c | 48.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 42c | 48.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 47.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 46.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 44.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 39c | 41.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 41c | 40.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 75c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 26.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 42c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 23.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.