NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70fa273507477598762b811c0b05be3014ad1c4f28c0eae2d4bd83dcc35859a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,009$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 3,059$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.13 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,668$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 2,594$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 2,554$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.39 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 1,882$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.57 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 1,069$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 958.71$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.01 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 53c | 953$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.91 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 564.38$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 57c | 450$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 57c | 291.23$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 43c | 291.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 227.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 46c | 227.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Under | 45c | 124.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 18c | 116.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 56c | 114.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 13c | 106.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 56c | 89.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 44c | 89.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 69.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…cce4backed Over | 57c | 60.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…da08backed Over | 54c | 60.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 58.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked Over | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf228…fbfabacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 46c | 26.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 45c | 23.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5this page
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Heat vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.