NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa74583976a61bb1e728529338279bdb9c43aa3521e29f94fd497b1611eab690c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors | 52c | 27,529$14,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,213.73 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 48c | 17,038$8,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,150.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Heat | 48c | 9,250$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Warriors | 52c | 9,118$4,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377.03 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Heat | 48c | 7,323$3,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,515 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Heat | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 47c | 3,065$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Warriors | 53c | 2,748$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.58 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 52c | 2,245$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Heat | 47c | 2,051$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.99 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 47c | 1,791$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Heat | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 52c | 929.03$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Warriors | 58c | 741.5$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.93 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Heat | 48c | 640$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Heat | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Heat | 48c | 313$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…811ebacked Heat | 50c | 300.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 49c | 262.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Heat | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Heat | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Heat | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…519ebacked Heat | 49c | 203.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Heat | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Warriors | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbd…432dbacked Warriors | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 192 | 58.3%112 W · 80 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…a71ebacked Heat | 50c | 66.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Heat | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Warriors | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Heat | 46c | 46.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Warriors | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Heat | 49c | 33.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Heat | 49c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)this page
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Heat vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.