TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Heat, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,819,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,914,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,819,684 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf42…d698backed Heat36c140,000$50,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,399.9917031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Heat35c120,494$42,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,373.0351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Heat36c69,444$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,999.7721057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Warriors67c64,532$43,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,003.791,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors65c60,000$39,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,999.951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors65c46,593$30,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,328.952,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Heat37c35,000$12,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,95023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ae…3020backed Warriors65c30,783$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,783.012951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Warriors65c30,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Heat35c29,000$10,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,019.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Warriors64c27,794$17,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,005.7359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Warriors63c27,500$17,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,174.9911653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Warriors68c25,000$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.3519653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Heat22c24,941$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.86540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Heat36c22,484$8,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,094.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors72c22,412$16,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,377.681,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Warriors70c20,036$14,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0047062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Warriors65c20,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors63c18,741$11,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,934.291,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors72c16,406$11,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,518.513,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Warriors72c15,784$11,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,449.9776054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat10c15,599$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.683039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Heat37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,55040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Warriors65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,25019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Heat0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors72c14,980$10,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,244.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Warriors66c14,053$9,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,777.9813455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Heat32c12,985$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.3128742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat19c12,651$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.461,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Heat36c11,867$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.352,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Heat38c11,691$4,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,461.875541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors64c11,568$7,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1309,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Warriors64c11,000$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,96029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked Heat36c10,852$3,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,957.3465144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors68c10,591$7,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.034,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Heat31c10,218$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12150838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Warriors64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Heat16c10,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.5342640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Heat34c9,957$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,385.511252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18dd…c89cbacked Heat36c9,501$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Heat31c9,229$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.19938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Heat35c9,009$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.1516039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Heat34c9,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9419747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Heat26c8,755$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.911,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Heat35c8,624$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.428643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Warriors64c8,000$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88014243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ce…d5f9backed Warriors55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Heat34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.9415247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Warriors66c7,505$4,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Heat13c7,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97547535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Warriors64c7,296$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.4228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Warriors76c7,233$5,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.8613250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Heat0c7,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Heat36c7,071$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.7527865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Warriors67c7,027$4,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.1639842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d6…d1e3backed Warriors75c7,020$5,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.4219949.7%99 W · 100 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Warriors66c6,946$4,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.647441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Heat35c6,786$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3755119.6%10 W · 41 L-10.1wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Warriors65c6,750$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.5372450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Warriors66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat16c6,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Heat33c5,958$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.992931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Warriors64c5,870$3,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.262351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat36c5,860$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Warriors63c5,660$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.185345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Heat35c5,641$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.3521250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Warriors66c5,628$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.6962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…8d0bbacked Warriors72c5,529$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.162152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Heat23c5,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.9821723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Heat32c5,313$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat32c5,100$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6321,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Warriors64c5,038$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.435251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Heat1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Warriors66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Heat31c4,889$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Warriors64c4,873$3,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.2819560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors75c4,723$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.663,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Heat35c4,694$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.0224831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Warriors65c4,633$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.9456453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Warriors64c4,480$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.7728439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fe…74dbbacked Heat34c4,441$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5103429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Warriors63c4,437$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.8419958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Heat37c4,203$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55533735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Warriors64c4,016$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.6326949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Warriors63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.9537944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Warriors64c3,785$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.465939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Heat33c3,650$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.9739958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Heat20c3,528$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Warriors66c3,490$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Heat21c3,453$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.5156945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19c…1e99backed Heat29c3,450$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.481250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat30c3,297$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.353,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Warriors68c3,250$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.641652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Heat30c3,250$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.580737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e6…e300backed Heat38c3,183$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2051526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors64c3,145$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.551,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Heat30c3,040$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.9850241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Heat35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.