Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x717537a7aca3700603aa1affd09ea1f11426321b239aa7b1467b7d75346abd13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 43c | 5,806$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.37 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Over | 57c | 3,022$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 56c | 1,785$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.26 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Over | 59c | 1,662$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 56c | 1,473$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.25 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 43c | 1,297$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.21 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 56c | 954.6$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 829.28$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 621.07$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 606.73$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.23 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 576.22$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 43c | 574$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 208.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 16c | 157.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 40c | 156.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 55c | 153.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 40c | 145.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 72c | 130.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 14c | 96.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 91.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 85.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 44c | 76.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 73.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 18c | 69.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 42c | 60.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 80c | 49.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 80c | 46.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 63c | 37.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Under | 46c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 58c | 26.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…7161backed Over | 58c | 22.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.