Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe864aa845720ef88d51878afa2341d32e594637fd9e11f8481b9427e009d59b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 18c | 3,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 19c | 1,718$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 1,468$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.99 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…fd69backed Under | 15c | 1,455$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +288.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed Under | 73c | 1,163$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 78c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Over | 79c | 633.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 538$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.52 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 511.53$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 415.9$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 15c | 353.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 337$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 205.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 186.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 130.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 127.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 51c | 124.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 9c | 122.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…58acbacked Over | 49c | 109.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…bd81backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 38c | 87.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 52c | 86.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 52c | 76.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Under | 79c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 70.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 56c | 69.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 31c | 69.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 61c | 67.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 67.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 64.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 58.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…612bbacked Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 49c | 44.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 57c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 42c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Over | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.