Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e39a600713bba5478c742a942cd881ca0d0551987dda0be6fdfb866de79957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 2,935$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.45 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…04fabacked Over | 47c | 2,147$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 62c | 1,670$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.4 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 52c | 1,273$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.28 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 39c | 1,068$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.84 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 36c | 1,026$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.94 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,023$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.97 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 40c | 835$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 38c | 796.57$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.08 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 743.51$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 648.28$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 39c | 515.76$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 489.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.64 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 44c | 388$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 39c | 344.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 51c | 288.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 48c | 214.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 18c | 212.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 207.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 189.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 64c | 155.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 150.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 129.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 46c | 113.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 61c | 112.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Over | 19c | 105.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 39c | 105.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 17c | 96.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 61c | 93.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 65c | 91.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 83.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 75.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…5329backed Over | 17c | 61.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 60.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 51c | 52.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 47c | 29.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 56c | 29.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.