Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e7986ab405c61cd37cc8470a52b10404e32d09cc057650784b3811b63e597f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 65c | 3,891$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.4 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 3,770$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.07 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Over | 37c | 2,055$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 67c | 1,039$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.98 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 596.26$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 66c | 571.42$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.18 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 20c | 444.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 62c | 418.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 80c | 345$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Under | 65c | 220$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 187.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 184.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 35c | 167.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 76c | 148.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 57c | 137.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 118.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 61c | 114.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 36c | 101.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 71c | 100.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 66c | 82.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 15c | 72.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 16c | 72.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 77c | 69.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Under | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed Over | 63c | 60.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 58.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 74c | 57.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 62c | 53.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 67c | 52.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 59c | 46.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 70c | 37.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 36c | 36.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Over | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Under | 44c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Over | 59c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…99c1backed Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 70cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 22.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…1a6abacked Under | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…a393backed Under | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Charlotte FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.