WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7196c1b3ed07f9875dae095455beb600bfa740ba12a0a80564ccb81a65ed65bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 2,011$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.72 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 1,718$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.47 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 1,150$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.35 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.98 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Washington Mystics | 47c | 999.97$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 666$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.66 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 585$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.73 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 509.85$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 58c | 340.48$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 302.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 275.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Washington Mystics | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Washington Mystics | 56c | 149.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 41c | 127.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 74.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Washington Mystics | 40c | 67.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 60.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…a687backed Washington Mystics | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -6.8wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics | 57c | 49.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 48.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 45.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Minnesota Lynx | 42c | 43.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 43c | 36.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…4338backed Washington Mystics | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Minnesota Lynx | 42c | 31.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…eb43backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b4…4ab8backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…f3b3backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington MysticsMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 161.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 163.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 164.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 166.5Over won
- Olivia Miles: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Shakira Austin: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.