WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fedb2f4ca645259539e0e04c9b5eaa1d876f472ecda80bc5be8476f7f378c1b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Washington Mystics
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Minnesota Lynx	45c	9,598$4,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,318.08	386	50.3%194 W · 192 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Washington Mystics	55c	7,539$4,172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,171.89	274	49.6%136 W · 138 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx	50c	4,337$2,166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,171.53	995	48.1%479 W · 516 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Mystics	50c	4,283$2,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,144.69	785	48.8%383 W · 402 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx	50c	4,191$2,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,110.92	893	49.4%441 W · 452 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Lynx	52c	4,038$2,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,934.64	371	41.2%153 W · 218 L	-13.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Washington Mystics	50c	2,378$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-35%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics	50c	2,120$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.68	1,765	51.7%912 W · 853 L	+53.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Washington Mystics	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-4.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bf1…b5afbacked Minnesota Lynx	47c	1,890$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,001.68	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics	55c	1,658$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.21	269	53.2%143 W · 126 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Washington Mystics	57c	1,607$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.2	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.8wins	-0.25per pick	52cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Washington Mystics	55c	1,600$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880	194	46.4%90 W · 104 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Mystics	50c	1,360$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.88	411	45.7%188 W · 223 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Mystics	53c	1,208$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.24	361	54%195 W · 166 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Minnesota Lynx	52c	1,155$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.02	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics	41c	878.86$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.21	1,611	50.2%809 W · 802 L	+37.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Minnesota Lynx	47c	575.15$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.69	286	47.9%137 W · 149 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Washington Mystics	48c	550$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	98	27.6%27 W · 71 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Washington Mystics	51c	509.8$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx	50c	500$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.5	837	48.1%403 W · 434 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics	45c	489.99$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.37	325	40.3%131 W · 194 L	-17.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked Minnesota Lynx	49c	394$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.94	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Mystics	55c	389$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.31	320	49.4%158 W · 162 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Minnesota Lynx	54c	321.31$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.61	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Lynx	46c	300.56$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.96	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20c…5031backed Minnesota Lynx	49c	259.99$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.6	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Mystics	50c	256$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	922	48.8%450 W · 472 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Washington Mystics	48c	190.92$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.85	245	46.9%115 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics	49c	189$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.7	506	46.8%237 W · 269 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Lynx	51c	157.47$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.94	132	56.8%75 W · 57 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Washington Mystics	51c	149.6$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.88	749	42.3%317 W · 432 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Washington Mystics	55c	145$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.75	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Washington Mystics	56c	142$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.52	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-5.2wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Lynx	50c	130.34$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.41	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Minnesota Lynx	48c	114.81$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.54	306	49%150 W · 156 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Washington Mystics	50c	114.28$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	237	46.4%110 W · 127 L	-10.1wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Washington Mystics	51c	113.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	100	50%50 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Washington Mystics	42c	106.35$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	224	40.2%90 W · 134 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	399	47.1%188 W · 211 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Washington Mystics	42c	92.26$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	131	38.9%51 W · 80 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Minnesota Lynx	57c	90$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.8	314	48.4%152 W · 162 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Minnesota Lynx	48c	86$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.61	364	54.1%197 W · 167 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Minnesota Lynx	52c	68$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.8	239	55.2%132 W · 107 L	+12.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Washington Mystics	56c	66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.63	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0536…c50bbacked Washington Mystics	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Minnesota Lynx	45c	64.89$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.69	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Minnesota Lynx	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	229	67.7%155 W · 74 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Washington Mystics	56c	57.16$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	260	54.6%142 W · 118 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a46…2482backed Washington Mystics	50c	57.14$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Washington Mystics	56c	50.72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Minnesota Lynx	46c	46.19$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.94	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bc1…c168backed Washington Mystics	55c	46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa250…b806backed Washington Mystics	50c	42.3$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Washington Mystics	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	349	18.3%64 W · 285 L	-49.5wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Lynx	53c	39.73$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.59	378	50%189 W · 189 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Lynx	65c	37.88$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.13	321	50.2%161 W · 160 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Minnesota Lynx	49c	37.57$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.16	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Minnesota Lynx	62c	35$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Minnesota Lynx	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Washington Mystics	56c	32$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Washington Mystics	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Minnesota Lynx	51c	27.74$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df4…bbc4backed Washington Mystics	54c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics	49c	24.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	641	52%333 W · 308 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Washington Mystics	57c	23.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Washington Mystics	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)this page
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington MysticsMinnesota Lynx won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 161.5Over won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5Over won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 163.5Over won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 164.5Over won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5Over won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 166.5Over won
Olivia Miles: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Shakira Austin: Points O/U 18.5No won
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5)Minnesota Lynx won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event