NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71b8673cbb05a98d7e4e8b47b963112ea9e04cc614b58a80d85d4914c38c423b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 47c | 25,522$11,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,971.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Wizards | 53c | 23,223$12,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,888.86 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Wizards | 53c | 7,100$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Bucks | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards | 53c | 2,787$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 30c | 1,916$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Wizards | 70c | 1,688$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.4 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Wizards | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 53c | 933.51$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 47c | 638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Wizards | 53c | 301.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 47c | 159$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 61c | 122.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bucks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Wizards | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Wizards | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Wizards | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Wizards | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Bucks | 51c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Wizards | 52c | 29.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…3c9bbacked Wizards | 77c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Wizards | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.