NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd325ca6e9b9a5f8024bffb824c58cc89501de69076f31672f08cb5fb43787a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 52c | 46,425$24,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,141.21 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 28,430$13,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,859.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 54c | 15,086$8,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,089.9 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 48c | 10,503$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,502.91 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 6,219$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.75 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 48c | 6,132$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.98 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 54c | 4,482$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.04 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 46c | 3,433$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.61 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 2,219$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 2,185$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.11 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,846$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,497$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.4 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 48c | 1,318$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.36 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 1,200$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 997.23$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.5 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 855$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 54c | 842.59$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 610$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 518.18$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 412$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.16 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…e2abbacked Under | 53c | 341.77$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 49c | 266.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 150.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 105.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 97.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Over | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 48c | 29.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Under | 51c | 29.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 51c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Over | 55c | 20.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.