TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Wizards, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,067,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,116,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,067,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b6c…6305backed Wizards19c80,495$15,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,405.887941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Wizards64c66,107$42,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,563.481,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Wizards53c56,972$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,971.9316846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks52c31,915$16,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,686.852,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Bucks26c31,500$8,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,257.588343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bucks47c28,207$13,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,284.211,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bucks55c27,809$15,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,287.7981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards49c26,958$13,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,820.333,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Wizards56c24,079$13,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,634.385664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards48c20,585$9,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,800.815,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards29c20,072$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,312.624,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Wizards40c17,464$6,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,494.041,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bucks74c15,934$11,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,827.4148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Wizards9c10,986$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,986.1625925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Bucks74c10,208$7,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,553.9121944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks61c10,089$6,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,195.661,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucks61c9,033$5,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,514.6544654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bucks54c8,724$4,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,728.7789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9b…6611backed Bucks38c8,209$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.862240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Bucks1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Bucks71c8,000$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,659.9973649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks80c7,732$6,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,184.551,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Bucks61c7,468$4,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,578.8616130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Wizards30c6,697$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,696.671752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Wizards33c6,061$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.6147856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Wizards34c5,925$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,931.0950838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards41c5,795$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.183,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bucks54c5,768$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.631,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks56c5,687$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.341,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Wizards19c5,263$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.1614753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Bucks48c5,231$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ad…9577backed Bucks79c5,150$4,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,057.992343.5%10 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-36.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards19c5,050$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Wizards18c5,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.9347028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards38c4,693$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.318,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks54c4,461$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.212,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Wizards23c4,348$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,348.2822035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards28c4,132$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.2348845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Wizards73c4,125$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.784339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Bucks70c4,111$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.913540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Bucks37c4,097$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Wizards56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76012143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Wizards19c4,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2401,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Wizards24c4,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,04034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Wizards19c4,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.9419747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed Wizards35c3,942$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.12785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks58c3,791$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.881,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Bucks44c3,754$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.9334227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Wizards36c3,694$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.0585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Bucks80c3,679$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.524151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Bucks32c3,661$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.5224053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Wizards18c3,307$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.3646632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Bucks56c3,039$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7032454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Wizards19c2,734$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.611,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Wizards34c2,670$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.5918440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks57c2,640$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.691,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Wizards52c2,467$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.837944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3513…3579backed Wizards19c2,400$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Wizards19c2,368$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.4235531.8%113 W · 242 L+1.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cca…6143backed Wizards66c2,326$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.6641550.1%208 W · 207 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Wizards26c2,308$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.9638649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Wizards76c2,262$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.9531954.5%174 W · 145 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Wizards49c2,160$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.0251753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Bucks7c2,142$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9439018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Wizards35c2,012$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.6161939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33d…c852backed Wizards20c2,000$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.993933.3%13 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Wizards19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6206949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Wizards18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Wizards19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.9349142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Wizards18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.8976249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Wizards50c1,986$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.576758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Bucks52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf214…5caabacked Wizards20c1,875$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3107…63b9backed Wizards70c1,785$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.514757.4%27 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Wizards26c1,672$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Wizards57c1,611$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.724634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards7c1,557$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.91,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4716…3444backed Wizards50c1,533$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.412263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc11d…0299backed Wizards66c1,507$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.294264.3%27 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Wizards20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2003938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Wizards20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Wizards15c1,463$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.551936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Wizards25c1,452$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.5345838%174 W · 284 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Wizards19c1,400$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13821538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb94…04f4backed Wizards15c1,400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.9822633.2%75 W · 151 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Wizards16c1,390$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.2616635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d82…ffb2backed Wizards26c1,354$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.852744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Wizards14c1,333$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.3230619.9%61 W · 245 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Bucks80c1,295$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.550347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Wizards20c1,250$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00011836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wizards61c1,192$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.91,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards30c1,124$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.963,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bucks1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e2…8ea7backed Bucks35c1,109$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.521145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Bucks41c1,109$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+50.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b9…9772backed Wizards18c1,100$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.9610637.7%40 W · 66 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Bucks56c1,075$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bucks63c1,072$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.4388845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Wizards9c1,069$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.8248448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Wizards19c1,053$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.6327443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.