NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43277a81f3a942ddb714c20b3b3478497429aad7861dfed3c5025f812f668e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Over | 58c | 4,733$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 1,053$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 1,016$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.26 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 63c | 580.63$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 64c | 552.36$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 396.32$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 38c | 215.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 170.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…05ddbacked Under | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 43c | 107$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…669abacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 95.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 63c | 95.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…8defbacked Over | 54c | 94.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 15c | 90.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 72c | 82.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 73.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 65.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked Over | 62c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…cdbdbacked Over | 62c | 33.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.