NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4914c6787781b129b1a955974085848e472249ca839e0442e97001ab1375ef92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 52c | 70,918$36,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,868.42 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 20,976$10,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,907.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8775…a018backed Under | 48c | 16,079$7,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,361.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 48c | 15,468$7,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,043.58 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 5,833$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.33 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,157$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…540abacked Under | 48c | 3,563$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 48c | 3,522$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.44 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 696.54$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 309.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.11 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 51c | 248.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 67c | 170$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 47c | 160.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 101.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 48c | 100.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…1e6bbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 39c | 94.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…c0bebacked Over | 58c | 81.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 81.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 43c | 79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Under | 48c | 72.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 62.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 33c | 47.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9eb…ae0ebacked Under | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…480bbacked Under | 44c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 36.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…c3c9backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Under | 48c | 34.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…1505backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Over | 66c | 25.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…b116backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…8235backed Over | 59c | 19.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.