NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa8ff4b83a98bc1e1c689949a59874719e09474c47a151b296a9f0c1cec91c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 113,965$58,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,542.96 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 67,792$32,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,971.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 49c | 65,009$31,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,154.45 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 51c | 20,869$10,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,742.83 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 8,417$4,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,292.42 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 5,300$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.57 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 52c | 3,790$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.84 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 2,010$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.55 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,845$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 47c | 1,582$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.35 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under | 49c | 1,396$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 49c | 1,388$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.76 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 53c | 1,066$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 899.95$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.97 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 857$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.81 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 598.87$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 449.17$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 51c | 168.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 49c | 140$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…ce8abacked Over | 54c | 101.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 52c | 76.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 64.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…6c7ebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.