NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72585a3220676693e5bbbf247ad0a87e378f14b8ec08ba9345892f8374c24513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 8,160$3,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 7,578$3,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,879.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…9edbbacked Over | 50c | 2,578$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,074$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 1,676$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.47 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 51c | 1,625$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.49 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 1,214$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 1,088$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 659.87$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 55c | 581.82$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 295$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 25c | 290$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 50c | 159.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 50c | 116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 78.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 68.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…bb49backed Under | 48c | 52.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Under | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 27.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 42c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…d8afbacked Under | 58c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-11.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BucksWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.