Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e778dec18e03ff0239e2da731c6d42b69a937194b850ddb6c0f498a5766b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 837.48$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 561.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 356.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 223.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 15c | 210.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 162.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 152.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 14c | 129.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 128.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 16c | 126.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 24c | 91.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 22c | 67.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 65.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 64.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 64.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 62.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 44c | 57.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 53.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…e349backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 40.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 40.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 38.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 76c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 17.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.