Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff303a6cc602fa2a434c931a18b4a13a092ef273cebdacc54698d1ef21bfeb6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 27c | 1,347$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.98 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 702$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 651.59$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 629.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 620.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 6c | 605.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 435.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 435.58$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 9c | 396$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 355.65$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 41c | 249.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 239.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 192.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 191$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 131.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 124.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 113.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 108.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 92.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 92.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 90.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 86.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 29c | 75.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 70.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 58.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 72c | 50.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 44.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…a960backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 41.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 71c | 35.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 32.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 59c | 31.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 59c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.