TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes31c799.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.971,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No4c686.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.218441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No63c449.97$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9818629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c372.45$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.894,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c364.42$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…fa82backed No4c346$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57545.6%3 W · 51 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c342.32$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.599,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes34c336.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.673,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes29c333.48$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.776817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c263.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.092,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed No67c258.4$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.356048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c213$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c196.21$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.768,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No71c184.64$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.711,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c180.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes30c155.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1144536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c152.4$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No8c143.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.024,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c131.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes40c123.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.628244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes32c114.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0417231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c109.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.489,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c106.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c103.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No69c91.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9846549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No71c84.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.921,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe679…636abacked Yes28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611133.3%37 W · 74 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes30c79.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.687437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes33c67.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6519039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes39c67.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2915660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c64.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.664,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c62.47$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.463,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c59.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.541,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes74c59.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3815346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.712,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6618…6881backed Yes50c57.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.972138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42c…9a9ebacked No26c57.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c52.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.155,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No69c52.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.377555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes26c50.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No69c50.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.940461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3648261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c47.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.22,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No69c46.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes32c42.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes66c42.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No69c42.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.29053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes38c42.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.376936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes74c42.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.948444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes59c41.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0914746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x262f…2198backed No38c39.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031580%12 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a9…9642backed Yes29c37.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.371338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c34.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes35c34.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2610121.8%22 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510671.7%76 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.259148.4%44 W · 47 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+59.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2543559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No65c30.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee88…49a4backed No65c30.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.656543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.829443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No68c29.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No50c27.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6927247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.933962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No67c24.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7451568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e2…be4bbacked No72c20.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.856360.3%38 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes64c20.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c20.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No72c17.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf811…bb96backed No67c17.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f1…a523backed No69c17.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.972277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c15.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c15.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No69c14.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No71c14.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes73c13.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.691,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.