Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71efa18f430f3d160ba6cfea08dcecaa9438969efdec81ef506811fb6f9bb52c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 4c | 26,000$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.11 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 13,252$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.39 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 2c | 11,279$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,070$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 3c | 4,462$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 9c | 2,870$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,763$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,628$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…e800backed Yes | 6c | 2,296$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 11c | 2,164$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 2,094$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.97 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 13c | 1,704$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,360$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 14c | 1,065$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…257cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 991.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked Yes | 27c | 928.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…b547backed Yes | 4c | 814.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed Yes | 3c | 749.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 17c | 704.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 4c | 660.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 9c | 618.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 30c | 566$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 523.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…cf43backed Yes | 4c | 416.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…7933backed Yes | 18c | 365$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 362.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 17c | 286.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…2c7bbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…ab2fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecf…1782backed Yes | 33c | 151.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…9909backed Yes | 13c | 101.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…7008backed Yes | 17c | 73.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 75c | 38.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 16-22?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.