Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72d49f5ca8e39987f4b620de3e313309142b4df410b2049d9d4f7ecba55bb956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 8,220$5,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.34 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 7,209$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.22 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 69c | 7,068$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.19 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 4,989$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.54 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…2965backed No | 68c | 4,707$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.09 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 4,234$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.32 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 2,781$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.04 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 69c | 1,837$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.37 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 32c | 1,653$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 32c | 1,440$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.79 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,422$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.26 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 30c | 1,359$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.7 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,108$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.47 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 31c | 1,015$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.13 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 31c | 1,003$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.85 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 32c | 992.38$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…e047backed Yes | 54c | 887.68$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 712.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 25c | 635.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 32c | 604.73$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 59c | 457.62$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 23c | 432.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 70c | 390$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…3c87backed No | 68c | 366.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 32c | 357.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 7c | 319.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 74c | 289.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 31c | 277.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 31c | 221.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 32c | 198.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 68c | 173.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 161.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 227 | 43.2%98 W · 129 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 69c | 119.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes | 32c | 106.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 29c | 102.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Yes | 30c | 102.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 102.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 70c | 101.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…7acabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 30c | 99.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed Yes | 25c | 99.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…b96bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 34c | 83.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 37c | 81.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 39c | 76.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…711abacked Yes | 33c | 74.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 73.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 69c | 71.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 69c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 32c | 66.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 207 | 41.5%86 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…90d7backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 68c | 64.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 67c | 62.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 182 | 53.8%98 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 32c | 59.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Yes | 32c | 55.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 30c | 55.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…4389backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a0…2813backed No | 61c | 48.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed No | 71c | 43.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…7926backed Yes | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9b…4404backed Yes | 50c | 37.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 68c | 36.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 34.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…9da5backed Yes | 40c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked No | 68c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…467ebacked No | 68c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 68c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked No | 72c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…0db5backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.