Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7353835eb1dcc99355108e7bfba28f4b41519a7b7d71442d9b644e16105a112a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona State Sun Devilsof Kansas State Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas State Wildcats | 61c | 1,712$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.79 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 62c | 960.35$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.08 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kansas State Wildcats | 2c | 859$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 44c | 667.39$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.61 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Kansas State Wildcats | 66c | 650.55$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.35 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 41c | 517$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.63 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kansas State Wildcats | 41c | 500.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 55c | 454.31$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 32c | 417.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 40c | 404.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.05 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Kansas State Wildcats | 55c | 374$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 59c | 362.61$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.44 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 14c | 277.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 59c | 252.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 242.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…e9f8backed Kansas State Wildcats | 8c | 164.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 20c | 164$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 77c | 160.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…1a71backed Kansas State Wildcats | 65c | 155.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kansas State Wildcats | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Kansas State Wildcats | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…b807backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 62c | 138.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 56c | 129.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 54c | 127$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Kansas State Wildcats | 40c | 125.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 46c | 124.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 58c | 108.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 38c | 99.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 46c | 87.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 47c | 82.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 37c | 56.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Kansas State Wildcats | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 34c | 43.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Kansas State Wildcats | 45c | 41.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked Kansas State Wildcats | 37c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Kansas State Wildcats | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Kansas State Wildcats | 35c | 30.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e4…30efbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 26.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…d39cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a2…b586backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 45c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Kansas State Wildcats | 63c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsthis page
- Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 169.5Over won
- Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 170.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.