TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arizona State Sun Devilsof Kansas State Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Kansas State Wildcats61c1,712$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.795,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona State Sun Devils62c960.35$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.083,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kansas State Wildcats2c859$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Arizona State Sun Devils44c667.39$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.612,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Kansas State Wildcats66c650.55$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3515861.4%97 W · 61 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Arizona State Sun Devils41c517$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6349747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kansas State Wildcats41c500.22$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.192,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kansas State Wildcats55c454.31$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.414,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils32c417.36$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.576844.1%30 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils40c404.41$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.052,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Kansas State Wildcats55c374$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9372248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils59c362.61$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.441,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f49…1befbacked Kansas State Wildcats14c277.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.335714%8 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick14cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Arizona State Sun Devils59c252.96$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3273549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils45c242.46$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.345,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e96…e9f8backed Kansas State Wildcats8c164.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+57.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kansas State Wildcats20c164$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.491,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Arizona State Sun Devils77c160.24$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.477467.6%50 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5827…1a71backed Kansas State Wildcats65c155.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Kansas State Wildcats67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008956.2%50 W · 39 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Kansas State Wildcats31c144$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.094522.2%10 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+51.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a29…b807backed Arizona State Sun Devils62c138.71$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.712948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arizona State Sun Devils56c129.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.391,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona State Sun Devils54c127$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.421,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…9c62backed Kansas State Wildcats40c125.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Arizona State Sun Devils46c124.49$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.736535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona State Sun Devils58c108.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.752,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils38c99.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.241,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460d…9d5fbacked Kansas State Wildcats46c87.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.193348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kansas State Wildcats47c82.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas State Wildcats65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils35c63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.141,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Arizona State Sun Devils37c56.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.731,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Kansas State Wildcats37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Arizona State Sun Devils34c43.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.364517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Kansas State Wildcats45c41.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8120254.5%110 W · 92 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe281…ad9abacked Kansas State Wildcats37c37.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Arizona State Sun Devils54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0214339.9%57 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Kansas State Wildcats52c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0722050.5%111 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Kansas State Wildcats35c30.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8238343.6%167 W · 216 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e4…30efbacked Kansas State Wildcats72c26.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da1…d39cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils58c25.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a2…b586backed Arizona State Sun Devils79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State Sun Devils54c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.612,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Kansas State Wildcats45c22.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4345953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…aca7backed Kansas State Wildcats63c17.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.293452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.