South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a00bd97eb60ed44fbef71921e184c3a97d7c38407fcba3819c66356e9cd062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 31c | 11,742$3,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.4 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 3c | 2,855$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 2,653$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.47 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 2,642$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,705$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 1,568$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.08 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 23c | 1,547$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.83 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,392$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.92 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 1,191$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.95 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 1,128$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.82 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 967.64$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.22 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 79c | 840.25$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…d45abacked Yes | 24c | 458.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 326$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed No | 69c | 213.59$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 181$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 7c | 172.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 69c | 156$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 256 | 35.9%92 W · 164 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Yes | 33c | 58.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Yes | 28c | 39.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 76c | 39.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…a15fbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 70c | 34.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…54aebacked No | 68c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 67c | 25.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed No | 77c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Unión end in a draw?No won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.