Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Shopify Rebellion vs. 100 Thieves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74208dad116534e18e1bf19a132be6e3b812875453518d1eacc6bf1cb6a524fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof Shopify Rebellion, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Shopify Rebellion | 17c | 7,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Shopify Rebellion | 49c | 4,900$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.99 | 637 | 46.5%296 W · 341 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 2,210$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.89 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 1,818$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.3 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Shopify Rebellion | 27c | 1,800$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed 100 Thieves | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 507 | 70%355 W · 152 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Shopify Rebellion | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 1,102$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.07 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Shopify Rebellion | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed 100 Thieves | 71c | 987.24$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.67 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Shopify Rebellion | 27c | 960.33$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.42 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 899.99$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked 100 Thieves | 78c | 841.49$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked 100 Thieves | 48c | 600$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Shopify Rebellion | 29c | 513$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed 100 Thieves | 52c | 496.08$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked 100 Thieves | 52c | 402.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,184 | 44.4%526 W · 658 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 394$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 1,603 | 42.4%679 W · 924 L | -18.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 42c | 297.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…20c5backed 100 Thieves | 73c | 249.66$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed 100 Thieves | 71c | 220.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 204.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…ba49backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Shopify Rebellion | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Shopify Rebellion | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked 100 Thieves | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Shopify Rebellion | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…0f0ebacked Shopify Rebellion | 30c | 53.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3546backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 30.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…31d3backed Shopify Rebellion | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…a893backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 27.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…2ba7backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.