NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7466e9862a1f0ba11eaf8e6180a6c012201b5bda0baf370935177a9187946e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60e…088cbacked Bulls | 56c | 6,250$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 44c | 4,412$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2f…936abacked Celtics | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Bulls | 52c | 2,164$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 50c | 2,081$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.59 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Celtics | 48c | 1,765$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.68 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls | 53c | 1,694$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.84 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 47c | 1,424$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,271$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.7 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics | 46c | 884.09$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.34 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Celtics | 45c | 847.52$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.1 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Celtics | 46c | 689.36$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.36 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Bulls | 55c | 602.8$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.54 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls | 31c | 538.23$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Bulls | 55c | 465$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.42 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Bulls | 54c | 376.71$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bulls | 11c | 330$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 49c | 303.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 47c | 238.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 44c | 228.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Bulls | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Celtics | 45c | 172$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Bulls | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…fd63backed Bulls | 54c | 131.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Bulls | 41c | 104.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Celtics | 51c | 104.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Bulls | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Bulls | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bulls | 23c | 84.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Bulls | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celtics | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Celtics | 50c | 62.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Bulls | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Bulls | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Bulls | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Bulls | 55c | 44.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Bulls | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Celtics | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Celtics | 46c | 42.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 50c | 41.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Celtics | 47c | 29.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…9e0bbacked Bulls | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283a…c8f1backed Celtics | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Bulls | 53c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)this page
- Anfernee Simons: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Bulls vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.