NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6325a0fe1a44f63e27e5692c7616d0d0a3f7906796ba37114206c77dc0459cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Celtics | 55c | 18,182$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,182.18 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls | 47c | 8,156$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,834.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 45c | 7,773$3,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.63 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 45c | 4,228$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Celtics | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.99 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Bulls | 45c | 3,273$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.6 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics | 54c | 2,791$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Bulls | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Celtics | 55c | 2,074$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.36 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Celtics | 57c | 1,810$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.59 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls | 43c | 1,385$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.72 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Celtics | 55c | 1,094$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Bulls | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics | 54c | 847.53$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Bulls | 44c | 772.73$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Celtics | 55c | 546.91$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.31 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Celtics | 54c | 500.06$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.53 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Celtics | 55c | 500.01$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bulls | 44c | 469.07$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.43 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Bulls | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 46c | 409.74$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Celtics | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Celtics | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…38f5backed Bulls | 45c | 333.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Bulls | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Bulls | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Bulls | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Bulls | 47c | 258.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 49c | 212.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics | 50c | 194.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Celtics | 54c | 185.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Celtics | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 54c | 136.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Celtics | 56c | 114.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Celtics | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…67bfbacked Bulls | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Celtics | 54c | 108.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Celtics | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bulls | 48c | 98.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Celtics | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…d330backed Celtics | 57c | 89.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Bulls | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Celtics | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Celtics | 54c | 56.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Bulls | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 44c | 49.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bulls | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Celtics | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Celtics | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Bulls | 47c | 39.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bulls | 47c | 38.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Bulls | 48c | 37.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…f5f5backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…c5f1backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…086abacked Bulls | 47c | 35.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Celtics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…f00fbacked Celtics | 54c | 31.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…f53dbacked Celtics | 54c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed Celtics | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…626dbacked Bulls | 47c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Celtics | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Celtics | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Celtics | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Celtics | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)this page
- Anfernee Simons: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Bulls vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.