Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x746c8b78cb31948e554bca9c608f1d39f7f25bb6bd778fd896b8f4f87eed785a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 38c | 1,144$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.76 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 971.92$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 475.15$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 468.32$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 277.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 37c | 255.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 234.34$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 181$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 68c | 146.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 130.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 128.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 10c | 105.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 94.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 94.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 92.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 87.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 83.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 76.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 76.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 38c | 72.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 62c | 59.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 56.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 52.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 48c | 51.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 45c | 49.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 42c | 49.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 45.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 45.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 45.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 44.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 43.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 54c | 41.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 54c | 40.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 38.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 53c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 36.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 54c | 34.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 34.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 52c | 34.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 28.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 46c | 28.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 65c | 27.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 68c | 25.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 52c | 23.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 51c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…8f2ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 18.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.