TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2edc…a207backed Yes38c1,144$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.765427.8%15 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c971.92$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No74c475.15$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No56c468.32$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.311,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes49c277.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1581558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes37c255.96$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4326533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c234.34$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.514,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes37c181$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No68c146.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7318347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No57c130.53$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.61,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes45c130$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0746733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No58c128.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0138560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes10c105.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c94.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No52c94.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.32,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c92.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No77c87.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.812,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c83.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c76.92$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.294,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No53c76.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.214,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes38c72.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5114957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No62c59.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6617247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c56.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes39c52.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes48c51.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.651,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7730…2aefbacked Yes45c49.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.391442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes42c49.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes47c45.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.428546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c45.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c45.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No60c44.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.952,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No55c43.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.771,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No54c41.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8921847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No62c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.581,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed No54c40.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.714257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.484,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c38.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.882,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes53c38.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2724141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No57c36.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c36.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes54c34.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No76c34.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No52c34.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3826442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes49c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2614053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No55c30.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No65c28.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.972,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes46c28.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.241752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed Yes65c27.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.984454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No68c25.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9739810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.516935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7521352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c24.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.642,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No52c23.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No51c21.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.37251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.774,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.115666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x002d…47a2backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…e434backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d4e…7c1abacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06f…90acbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8143…5f93backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed5…4ea8backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a68…1e7abacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6118…d31dbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9882…1d24backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0407…bcfdbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9293…8f2ebacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1040162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.125560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x239f…8b82backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbc…9feabacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x236e…fe7fbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.820056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No56c18.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.211,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No56c18.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0718449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.