Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1addc926cf27c4cde3d62fb06e6641b808e6c4ca7c1f2f3bdb68afc448dc51e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 56c | 835.48$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.53 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 471.97$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 407.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 53c | 401.04$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 388.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 337.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 296.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 268.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 227.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 53c | 178$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 177.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 144.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 126.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 125.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 40c | 99.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 98.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 97.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 94.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 39c | 92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 91.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 89.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 84.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 84.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 81.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 80.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 76.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 76.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 72.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 35c | 70.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 55.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 51.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 50.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 65c | 45.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 43.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 41.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 63c | 41.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 38.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 37.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 70c | 36.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 61c | 36.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 36.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 62c | 35.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 47c | 33.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 48c | 32.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 31.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 37c | 31.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 48c | 30.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 27.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 25.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 66c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.